Growth isn’t a guessing game. But most companies still treat it like one.
Let’s all just be honest with ourselves, “we’re going to grow 50% YoY!” isn’t a strategy. While ambition is great, if you’re running a SaaS platform, a mobile app, or any digital product, that kind of thinking will burn you. Even more so when you factor in limited time, budget & team.
What is a growth model (and why should you care)?
A growth model is a framework that shows how your business grows , in plain numbers. It breaks down your core metrics into inputs you can influence and outputs you care about.
Old-school forecasting models (top-down “+20%” type predictions) often ignore user behavior and the system dynamics that actually drive growth. Modern growth models are different. They start with how users interact with your product, and which actions move the needle.
Here’s why growth models matter:
- They help teams focus on what to improve, not just what to measure.
- They connect experiments to business impact.
- They create a shared language between teams and stakeholders.
And most importantly: they help you figure out where to invest your next 100 hours or €10,000.
What goes into a growth model? Input vs output
Before we can grow, we need to know how growth happens. A solid growth model breaks down:
- Outputs: the results your business reports on (MRR, WAU, total revenue, active subscriptions).
- Inputs: the user behaviour's and product actions that drive those results (signup %, onboarding completion, upgrade rate, D7 retention).
Why is this split so important?
Because your team can’t ‘do’ an output , but it can experiment with an input.
Take this simplified SaaS example:
Following this chain helps you:
- Spot the biggest constraints in your growth loop.
- Prioritize where to experiment.
- Set input-based OKRs that teams can own.
Advanced tip: Instead of chasing one output / North Star Metric, many scale-ups now follow a “constellation of metrics” approach (as Shaun Clowes from Atlassian describes), where you continuously shift focus to the input that matters most right now.
A model is not enough , someone needs to own it
This is where most growing start-ups and scale-ups drop the ball.
They build a beautiful model… and no one owns it. Or updates it. Or uses it to make decisions. That’s like building a map but never looking at it while driving.
A growth model should be a living, evolving part of your strategy, and that takes ownership. Someone has to:
- Challenge assumptions.
- Refine inputs over time.
- Sync it with product, sales, marketing, and leadership.
- Translate numbers into focus and action.
This is where we come in.
At ACE Growth, we don’t just help you build the model, we lead the process, embed it into your growth strategy, and guide your team to use it day-to-day. It’s not busywork. It’s a compass.
One size doesn’t fit all: customizing for your business model
Every business grows differently, so you’ve got to build your own… no shortcuts! Here’s some examples of how we’ve applied growth modelling across different industries:
Apps (B2C: Fintech)
- The why for the growth model: Prioritizing where to reduce friction and add value in the onboarding to increase monthly recurring revenue.
- Focus: MRR, churn and reinvestment.
- Inputs: activation rate, onboarding flow, deposit rate, deposit size.
Marketplaces (shared mobility platform)
- The why for the growth model: Balancing acquisition between both sides of the marketplace.
- Focus: supply/demand liquidity, total revenue versus % platform commission.
- Inputs: transporter onboarding, monthly rides to active users, first transaction success.
In our growth model template you can find not only the growth model inouts, but also easy to read graphs and figures. This way you can summarize easily to your shareholders how you project growth. Download the template here.
Why Growth Models Work (When Done Right)
Let’s summarize why a growth model is more than a fancy spreadsheet:
- Creates focus in a world of too many ideas.
- Turns growth into a testable system, not random hacks.
- Aligns the whole company , from product owners to sales to marketing to execs.
- Helps you prioritize with confidence.
- Builds compound learning: each quarter builds on the last, you never forget what happened in Q1 last year (because trust me, someone on the board will ask you).
A good model turns vague targets into specific levers. It gives product, marketing, and leadership the same map, and lets them decide where to go next.
Summary: predictive growth modelling, in practice
If you’ve built a great product but don’t know what’s holding back your growth, a predictive model can unlock the answer.
Start simple. Focus on what you can control. Break your growth down into testable parts. And make someone responsible for the process.
Need help?
We’ve been in the room with SaaS, marketplace, and app teams trying to figure this out; from €10k MRR to Series B. And it’s the same problem every time: too many ideas, no map.
So don’t be shy, drop us a line, and let us help you create yours!
